02 August 2012

How Much Solar Can China Install Domestically? 100GW by 2020?

A report by Greentech Media

If true, the solar glut is over. Prepare for price increases!

China's PV manufacturing facilities are vastly underutilized. A few Chinese firms might be allowed to fail by the government or encouraged to be acquired by larger, more stable entities. Suntech, LDK, and others are faced with mounting balance sheet issues.

The U.S. and the European Union are imposing tariffs on Chinese solar products, the incentive regimes in Germany and California are diminishing, and China is facing some fierce market realities.

Shyam Mehta made these observations and forecasts for the global PV market in GTM Research's most recent solar market report:
  • PV supply to be nearly 200 percent of demand in 2012, or 59 gigawatts of supply compared to 30 gigawatts of demand
  • Crystalline silicon (c-Si) module manufacturing costs to fall as low as $0.45 per watt by 2015 for Chinese Tier-1 suppliers
  • C-Si module average selling price (ASP) to dip to $0.61 per watt by 2015 from Chinese Tier-1 suppliers
  • Average c-Si module efficiency to hit 16.4 percent by 2015 compared to 14.9 percent today

Read the full article.

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